Statistics for Traders
Statistics is one of the most misunderstood and abused subject in mathematics (and science). The reason is something we can all easily understand – statistics is something we can all sort of relating to but counter-intuitive when applied in event by event situations.
Our brains are wired that way so that our ancestors can survive in nature. Since human has not evolved into any better forms for quite some time, yet our civilization is advancing in such a pace that even our computers are outdated every year or two, our minds are not that cooperative when it comes to making decisions that are drastically different from the ones that our ancestors faced. The ability to adapt our minds in making proper trading decisions boils down to our ability in applying logical thinking and statistical analysis properly.
It all sounds so complicated but in reality all you have to do is to take time understanding some basic concepts in statistics, then utilize the distilled rules and concepts to make better trading decisions, as oppose to relying on our gut feelings.
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Double Gap Statistics 
Gaps not filled the same day is a rare event in Emini S&P. It happens less than 4% of the time. Whenever it happens though, it produces a very consistent bias for the next trading day that is exploitable.
If you do not know what gaps are, please read about it in Outside Gap Behaviour, Then and Now.
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Emini S&P Afterhours Behaviour Part 3 – Distribution Study on AH Range
AH Range Distribution Following is the distribution of AH range for Emini S&P since mid 2005. [DTBMember] Important observations from the distribution. 1. There is no mistake that it is a classic t-distribution. The right side count spi ...
AH Range Distribution Following is the distribution of AH range for Emini S&P since mid 2005. [DTBMember] Important observations from the distribution. 1. There is no mistake that it is a classic t-distribution. The right side count spi ...
Emini S&P Afterhours Behaviour Part 4 - Statistics on Projected RTH Price Boundaries
One set of the statistics that I often mention in the real-time chat is the AH High / Low / Mid statistics. For the Emini S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Dow, these index future contracts have 2 separate trading sessions. First the regular trading hours (R ...
One set of the statistics that I often mention in the real-time chat is the AH High / Low / Mid statistics. For the Emini S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Dow, these index future contracts have 2 separate trading sessions. First the regular trading hours (R ...
Emini S&P Afterhours Behaviour Part 5 - Time of Day Statistics
When we look at Emini afterhours trading activities, it is important to remember that the US stock markets is not active during that time. Hence Emini S&P500 moves mainly as a proxy with the active markets trading in the world at the time. Emini ...
When we look at Emini afterhours trading activities, it is important to remember that the US stock markets is not active during that time. Hence Emini S&P500 moves mainly as a proxy with the active markets trading in the world at the time. Emini ...
Emini S&P Day Close to Range Distribution
To answer a question from our member, here is the distribution plot of Emini S&P close of the day relative to the range of the day. By representing the price as a percentage of the RTH range, centered at the midpoint, we get a distribution gra ...
To answer a question from our member, here is the distribution plot of Emini S&P close of the day relative to the range of the day. By representing the price as a percentage of the RTH range, centered at the midpoint, we get a distribution gra ...
Essence of Trading: Only Man-made Roads are Straight and Smooth
Ever observe a tree in detail? From afar, a tree may look tall and sturdy. That is just our impression of the tree. By looking at a tree carefully, you would notice that it is not quite accurate. Its branches are never grown in straight lines. The ...
Ever observe a tree in detail? From afar, a tree may look tall and sturdy. That is just our impression of the tree. By looking at a tree carefully, you would notice that it is not quite accurate. Its branches are never grown in straight lines. The ...
Essence of Trading: Price Goes Up And Down
Before you spend time even thinking of the more complex price patterns or technical setups, have you even paying any attention to the most basic foundation of the price charts, like the price bars themselves? It does not matter you use candlesticks ...
Before you spend time even thinking of the more complex price patterns or technical setups, have you even paying any attention to the most basic foundation of the price charts, like the price bars themselves? It does not matter you use candlesticks ...
Estimate Of Volume Affected By The Sudden Margin Increase On Apple Inc.
I posted in my real-time chat yesterday in the morning that the sudden margin increase on Apple will force a significant amount of stocks to be liquidated and that amount can be estimated. It is not a straight forward formula. Instead we can approach ...
I posted in my real-time chat yesterday in the morning that the sudden margin increase on Apple will force a significant amount of stocks to be liquidated and that amount can be estimated. It is not a straight forward formula. Instead we can approach ...
Euro Dollar Price Action Biases At Weekly Extremes
2 studies are presented in this article. Let's get started. It is well known that the range of a trading period (i.e. a month, a week, a day), is highly correlated to the range of the trading period right after. The lesser known fact is that the ext ...
2 studies are presented in this article. Let's get started. It is well known that the range of a trading period (i.e. a month, a week, a day), is highly correlated to the range of the trading period right after. The lesser known fact is that the ext ...
Explosion in Emini S&P Trade Volume
The table is showing the average number of trades per day in January over 5 year period. Back in 2004 and 2005, the average was around 90K and then decreased to around 50K in the following 2 years. This year, however, we have witness the biggest ...
The table is showing the average number of trades per day in January over 5 year period. Back in 2004 and 2005, the average was around 90K and then decreased to around 50K in the following 2 years. This year, however, we have witness the biggest ...
