Statistics for Traders
Statistics is one of the most misunderstood and abused subject in mathematics (and science). The reason is something we can all easily understand – statistics is something we can all sort of relating to but counter-intuitive when applied in event by event situations.
Our brains are wired that way so that our ancestors can survive in nature. Since human has not evolved into any better forms for quite some time, yet our civilization is advancing in such a pace that even our computers are outdated every year or two, our minds are not that cooperative when it comes to making decisions that are drastically different from the ones that our ancestors faced. The ability to adapt our minds in making proper trading decisions boils down to our ability in applying logical thinking and statistical analysis properly.
It all sounds so complicated but in reality all you have to do is to take time understanding some basic concepts in statistics, then utilize the distilled rules and concepts to make better trading decisions, as oppose to relying on our gut feelings.
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Explosion in Emini S&P Trade Volume
The table is showing the average number of trades per day in January over 5 year period. Back in 2004 and 2005, the average was around 90K and then decreased to around 50K in the following 2 years. This year, however, we have witness the biggest ...
The table is showing the average number of trades per day in January over 5 year period. Back in 2004 and 2005, the average was around 90K and then decreased to around 50K in the following 2 years. This year, however, we have witness the biggest ...
Post Hectic Environment Period
After the turbulent period of June to mid-August 2007, as mentioned in the previous article, the explosive growth in real-time data has retreated some what. Here is an update about the current situation. Before and After Before June 2007, the e ...
After the turbulent period of June to mid-August 2007, as mentioned in the previous article, the explosive growth in real-time data has retreated some what. Here is an update about the current situation. Before and After Before June 2007, the e ...
The Black Swan
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting book. One of the claims in the book talks about the return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be cut by half if a limited number of days (the ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an interesting book. One of the claims in the book talks about the return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be cut by half if a limited number of days (the ...
Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way
Have you ever spent time studying how the market you trade behave statistically? Here is an example showing some interesting behaviour that is ignored by many traders. Statistic Concept of Runs A Run in statistics means the repetition of th ...
Have you ever spent time studying how the market you trade behave statistically? Here is an example showing some interesting behaviour that is ignored by many traders. Statistic Concept of Runs A Run in statistics means the repetition of th ...
Counter-Trend Trading with Simple Range Exhaustion System
Here is an extremely simple trading system that violates the classic rule of trading, trend is your friend, with very good results. It is an excellent example that illustrates how counter-trend approaches work. Simple Range Exhaustion System ...
Here is an extremely simple trading system that violates the classic rule of trading, trend is your friend, with very good results. It is an excellent example that illustrates how counter-trend approaches work. Simple Range Exhaustion System ...
An Introduction to Time Distribution Analysis
Knowing just your odds with a particular trading setup may not be enough. You need to know the various possible scenarios that may unfold so that you are ready to handle them. Here is a tool that helps you study your trading setups using time distrib ...
Knowing just your odds with a particular trading setup may not be enough. You need to know the various possible scenarios that may unfold so that you are ready to handle them. Here is a tool that helps you study your trading setups using time distrib ...
Classic Day Trade Modelling
Before we have access to intraday day data, how do we test trading systems that last only a day? Long time ago, thats all we have access to, and I think it is a good idea for our readers to see how traders utilize classic bias without the help of ...
Before we have access to intraday day data, how do we test trading systems that last only a day? Long time ago, thats all we have access to, and I think it is a good idea for our readers to see how traders utilize classic bias without the help of ...
In Early Stage Of System Development, Avoid Position Sizing
Many beginners in trading system development like to play with position sizing scheme. It feels great when you get a great equity curve with spectacular performance by simply twisting what position sizing rules to use and experiment with various sizi ...
Many beginners in trading system development like to play with position sizing scheme. It feels great when you get a great equity curve with spectacular performance by simply twisting what position sizing rules to use and experiment with various sizi ...
Moving Average Is More Than What You Think - Part 3
Some readers are very forthcoming, they simply email me and complained to me for wasting their time in talking about moving average as something that is useful at all. I replied through email asking for their patience and wrapped up this third instal ...
Some readers are very forthcoming, they simply email me and complained to me for wasting their time in talking about moving average as something that is useful at all. I replied through email asking for their patience and wrapped up this third instal ...
Advance Issues Pattern 2
After demonstating a pure daytrading short signals in Advance Issues Pattern 1, we are going to look at the data to see if we can figure out a daytrading pattern that works from the long side. Since year 2000, the S&P 500 is in a major downtrend, is ...
After demonstating a pure daytrading short signals in Advance Issues Pattern 1, we are going to look at the data to see if we can figure out a daytrading pattern that works from the long side. Since year 2000, the S&P 500 is in a major downtrend, is ...
