"Statistical Bias" Posts
Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling: How Not to be Ignorant About the World
By Lawrence
Great video about the ignorant of the general public. The problem goes much deeper than the Roslings suggested though as people in power to make decisions for the masses are as ignorant if not worse. In my opinion, the most important thing to take away from the video for traders is to understand that the […]
Heng Seng Index (HSI) Basic Daily Statistical Biases for Effective Day Trading
By Lawrence
The Heng Seng Index (HSI) has been a tradable instrument for a long time similar to the S&P500 index future. Long time ago, it was also the darling of hedge funds before the 21st century. Majority of retail traders, however, choose to stay away from it due to its reputation of wide spread and illiquid […]
Michael Mauboussin: The Success Equation – Untangling Skill and Luck
By Lawrence
An interesting talk based on the book “The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck” by Michael Mauboussin. Mr. Mauboussin is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. It is a long talk for about an hour. You can get the book from Amazon.
Emini S&P Afterhours Behaviour Part 6: A Different Take On AH Price Levels
By Lawrence
In first few instalments of this series, I define the regular trading session as 9:30 am to 4:15 pm Eastern Time and that all trading outside of this are part of the After Hours (AH) session. Since CME changed the Regular Trading Session closing procedure, it became more confusing on how to define the after […]
Forex Trading Signal: Bearish Discharge
By Lawrence
Bearish Discharge is a day trading system designed to work with Euro and British Pound. It is a very consistent trading model for many years. The trading setup does not happen that often but it is a good example of applying the STOPD principles in day trading. How It Looks Like in British Pound […]
Intraday Bias: Option Expiration Tuesday
By Lawrence
Option expiration week Tuesday is different from regular Tuesday. Regular Tuesday does not produce noticeable bias throughout the history of Emini S&P. Option expiration Tuesdays, however, has very strong statistical bias that somehow no one mentions it anywhere, including many famous option trading gurus. Maybe they are keeping the goodies for themselves? (premium member only […]
Intraday Bias: Option Expiration Friday
By LawrenceOption expiration Friday is unique from other normal Friday. It has a reliable bias to lean on for day trading. I will explain what it is and presenting 2 trading models, one aggressive and one conservative, as demonstration. (member-only content below)
Why You Shouldn’t Long Euro On Monday
By Lawrence
Many traders who took the plunge into trading forex do not know about many basic biases that are very useful but not very obvious. Not buying euro on Monday is definitely on the top of this list. I will explain why you should be aware of this and how to take advantage of it. Cold […]
Forex Weekly Bias: Range Expansion vs. Midpoint Probability
By Lawrence
Forex majors has a very consistent characteristics across them all. Namely, the likelihood of tagging the midpoint of a week in the week right after. The overall statistics across all the majors suggest that it is a pretty good bet to look for mean reversion as the probability stands at more than 60%. The problem, […]
