Thanksgiving Week Bias
By LawrenceThanksgiving in US is the 4th Thursday in November. Here is what to expect during this week based on the Thanksgiving weeks over past 19 years for SPY and 13 years for QQQ
| Expectation | SPY | QQQ |
| Volume Comparing To Last Week | 70% | 59% |
| Range Comparing To Last Week | 85% | 73% |
| Higher Close | 58% | 61% |
| Higher High | 53% | 69% |
| Lower Low | 37% | 23% |
| Monday Range Comparing To The Week’s Range | 57% | 56% |
It is pretty clear from the table above that trading volume will be lower.
The range of the whole week is likely to reduce by 15% (SPY) to 27% (QQQ).
As I pointed out before, low volume environment in stock market has a slight bias towards the upside. The statistics above simply confirms that. Notice the chance of a lower low to be made in coming week is just 37% (SPY) and 23% (QQQ).
Finally coming Monday is likely to cover most of the range we will see this week.
In short, not a week to trade heavily. If possible, walk away and do something else.
