The Lawrence Chan Blog

For some mysterious reason, no one even reports what is happening around the world these days. Something like what we are experiencing now should be news everywhere yet not even one mainstream media is picking this up. Not news worthy?

I reported back on Nov 1 that the solar flares from the Sun will affect communication equipment. The sunspot cycle I mentioned also correspond to earthquake some how. Well, sunspot activity has be the mildest over the century, yet earthquakes at 6.0 or higher in Richter scale recorded is now the highest within a month in recent history. In addition, we now have the most number of volcanoes activated at the same time in recent 200 years.

What the hell is going on?

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We’ve been working hard to resolve the technical issues relayed to real-time bias delivery.

Well, not really me who resolve the issues, it was just my guys doing all the hard work and I was there to stress test the prototypes.

I think majority of the technical issues are taken care of. Next is a simple test in the real world where premium members can try out. I will keep you all posted on this.

Now, onto funny things about Twitter. What’s the connection between Twitter and my real-time bias service?

First, Twitter is a real-time message delivering system.

Second, at some point during our development process, we’ve tried using Twitter as the backbone to deliver the real time bias reporting.

Twitter worked so well as a backbone with our prototype we’ve gone to the point with many fancy things built around it. Then we’ve learned something the hard way. Twitter has a hard limit on the number of messages you can tweet! Once it is reached you are flagged as abusing the system.

The odd thing is that there is no limit on the number of messages being broadcasted to your subscribers. It does not matter if you have only 10 subscribers or a million subscribers. Twitter limits both the frequency and the total number of messages you can tweet everyday. Twitter also imposes a limit on the number of Tweets you can receive everyday.

So people like me who try to piggyback on their awesome real-time delivery system will have a hard time doing so. It is actually how we first learned about the hard limit because we breached the number of messages we can tweet in 2 hours. I guess the limits are there exactly to stop people like me.

Talking about hacking our way through the internet … LOL

At the end we have to scrap the whole idea and start over again.

I think this prototype on Twitter is actually a great experience. At least I have a story to tell you all.

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Monthly update on market internals.

The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Nov 22 close

Review

Tick16 breakout mode gave us breakout to the upside.

First Tick16 short term overbought against Tick16 long term bearish gave us a brief pullback as I mentioned that in real-time chat. This setup worked out in coordination with the 3-Day Advance Issues divergence setup.

And right after the pullback, it turned into a powerful buy signal as mentioned last time.

Reading

1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) bearish

2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) still have room to go back up to at least the long term line and more likely the neutral zone. This is bullish.

3. 3-Day Advance Issues (green line) in 2 way swings

Inference

a. #1 is bearish longer term (4 to 6 weeks)

b. #2 more room to go for the upside

c. #3 distribution in progress

Long Term Outlook

The 1998 scenario played out. That means we are likely getting an early year end rally and until the Tick16 short term reading is overbought, it is not time yet to fight the uptrend on swing basis.

The way 3-day advance issues swinging both ways is great for day trading.

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As I reported back in late September, China mentioned the potential of having an oil future exchange in the Free Trade Zone in Shanghai.

Now it is a confirmed threat in competing against the US exchanges with the crude oil contracts potentially priced in yuan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/21/china-crudeoil-idUSL4N0J62M120131121

Here comes the petroyuan dynasty.

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It is something new introduced to me by a friend.

He’s a medical profession who does not like the concept of trading but he has a thing for gambling. He has been a member of a very famous international gambling site for a long time. The funny thing is that he told me he has been using the 3-day pattern odds table to bet at the gambling site with success for sometime now.

I was speechless when he mentioned what he did. He actually showed me what can be done at the gambling site. It looks very interesting and definitely something I have not think of.

My guess is that he was trying to impress me as he has been doing this for months before showing me the results. From what I saw with his records, the gambling site does not take into account the odds of certain bias happening. Hence an edge to take on the house.

I am going to open an account there myself and start tracking the odds offered. If this idea works, it is something wonderful to do. In many countries, winnings from gamble activities are tax free.

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