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Lawrence's Comment Recap Y-0 resistance gave us a pullback to Y-1. Dow found support there and zoomed to Y+1, yet failed to stay above. Dow failed on retest of week high and ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap The 2-way swings expectation played out nicely. Dow did its usual gap above Y-0 trick which forced a squeeze to test Y+1. FBO against Y+1 gave us a drop ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Reacted to the head and shoulders neckline initially and dropped quickly below Y-0. Then an all out rally took place and cleared Y+1 in 1 go. After ...READ MOREI was asked a question in my real-time chatroom about the 3-Day Pattern Odds Reports. Specifically if there is something wrong with the tables for Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Dow jumped back above Y-0 but failed to hold above it right after, leading to a clean drop back down to Y-1. Since then Dow drifted back up to ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Breakout happened and it was to the upside too, no surprise to anyone who read my comment last week. =) 100% absolute range expansion stopped the move and ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Broken below our support zone, but successfully staged a double bottom to blast the price up right underneath. That puts Y-0 into play. Reached Y-0 in midweek and ...READ MOREDow 30 Sep 08 to Sep 12 OutlookDow 30 Mar 14 to Mar 18 OutlookDow 30 Sep 14 to Sep 18 OutlookDow 30 Dec 03 to Dec 07 OutlookDow 30 Jul 24 to Jul 28 OutlookDow 30 Jan 20 to Jan 24 OutlookWhen There Is No Match In History …Dow 30 Apr 06 to Apr 10 OutlookDow 30 Nov 04 to Nov 08 OutlookDow 30 Oct 10 to Oct 14 Outlook
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Where is Dow Heading According to Basic Chart Patterns and STOPD?
Sometimes it is better to look at the big picture from afar to gain better perspective. Here is the weekly chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average.
FOMC Week Tendency
The blue arrows mark the week for which we have FOMC meetings and announcements.
Do you know that historically it is very likely within 2 meetings after each announcement that both the week high and week low are tagged?
The meeting back in March has its week high tagged, but not the week low (highlighted by red zone). It is now the potential downside target.
Basic Chart Patterns
Measured up move off 2015 year low (marked by the 2 red lines), weekly consolidation or pullback is due after the upside target was tagged.
Trend line breakout (the upper orange line) being tested from above at this April FOMC week. Failing to hold that we get trend line false breakout with previous year close (highlight by yellow zone) the next downside target.
STOPD Patterns
Dow tested previous quarter high and failed to hold above on weekly closing basis, going back down to previous year close (yellow zone) and previous quarter / year midpoint (middle blue line) is in play. How it gets there does not matter. What matters is that the dynamics will very likely nudge the market to complete the biases.
End Notes
There are more to understanding charts the right way. One important rule is that price levels from higher timeframes are more important than the lower timeframes. Another important rule is that STOPD levels from higher timeframes often dictate the moves in non-serial matter hence very difficult to notice until you keep track of them as part of your routine chart reading. Knowing where we stand in terms of weekly context can help us handle day-in day-out trading with much better clarity and confidence.
My premium members got the special update knowing a swing top is in within a day. That is based on custom market breadth models which can help us refine the timing and knowing the magnitude of the pullback. It is a very powerful tool but we still need solid chart reading skill to manage our trades properly.
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